Fx Trading:Much Ado About Nothing!
Article Summary:
Article Content:
This weekend, the G-20 met to discuss global economic conditions but it looked as though they spent most of that time watching soccer. President Obama was unsuccessful in getting other nations to spend more, and the big take-away was that governments plan of reducing deficits rather than adding to them.
This has given world markets a boost of confidence as we are seeing mild risk-taking this morning. This morning we are waiting on the personal spending and income numbers here in the US, but the big deal this week is going to be Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.
The important thing to look at is the growth (if any) of private sector jobs. Last month’s report was distorted by the hiring of census workers, and the private gains severely disappointed.
Overnight, Japanese retail sales figures came in worse than expected, and business confidence in New Zealand fell to 18-month lows.
In the forex market:
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is higher on risk-taking and renewed confidence in the economy has come about as a result of the new Prime Minister’s stance on the mining tax which was seen as anti-business.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is lower across the board as business confidence figures came in at 18-month lows. Confidence declined as a result of the RBNZ rate hike as well as the Euro zone debt crisis which has business concerned that sales and profits will decrease.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is mixed this morning, trading generally higher on risk-taking after this weekend’s G-20 meeting in Toronto. Oil is edging lower as hurricane fears in the Gulf of Mexico subside., taking the Loonie slightly lower.
Euro (EUR): European stocks are higher for the first time in 5 days as the austerity vs. stimulus debate was settled at the G-20 in favor of austerity. Members committed to plans to halves deficits by 2013. German CPI data came in slightly lower than expected at .9%, showing signs of neither inflation nor deflation.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is higher as the market agrees with the austerity measures that the UK is pursuing. The Pound is now over 1.50 vs. USD.
Dollar (USD): US personal spending and income figures came in as expected with incomes slightly lower and spending slightly higher. However, all else takes a backseat to this Friday’s jobs numbers which will show whether or not there is real improvement in the economy.
Yen (JPY): The Yen appears to be gaining strength as what started out as risk-taking this morning looks like it may be flipping over to risk-aversion. Overnight, retail sales figures came in worse than expected as government stimulus is preparing to end.
There are three major problems plaguing the world economy and need to be addressed going forward. The first is global debt, which has exploded for many nations. The US plan to continue to stimulate was rebuffed at the G-20.
The next problem is the lack of domestic demand coming from other economies around the globe (particularly Germany and Japan). Because there is not a lot of demand form these large economies. The US feels the need to pick up the slack. It was apparent after this weekend’s meeting that this is not going to change any time soon.
The last problem is the Chinese currency peg, which went unaddressed this weekend, just as the Chinese had hoped by making their pre-announcement.
So as expected, this meeting was much ado about nothing. Although the near billion dollar price tag to put it on will only serve to further rile up the G-20 protesters.
The big accomplishments were actually non-actions; no global bank taxes and the agreement that banks would keep more capital on hand, and that government have agreed to halve deficits by 2013, including the US.
How the US is going to halve deficits by 2013 while continuing on this spending spree is pure fantasy, and I’m sure our credibility as a nation has diminished.
Remember that the best way to take advantage of good economic policy is to invest in the countries that follow them! One of the easiest ways to do that is through the forex market.
To learn more about how you can take advantage of world events through the currency market, be sure to check out our currency trading courses!
To follow these events live with a free, real-time practice account, click here! Don’t miss out on the world’s fastest growing market!
none
———————

Leave a Reply