Forex Investment:Currency Outlook 8/4/11
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The moment the market had been waiting for arrived last night in the form of Bank of Japan monetary easing and intervention. This comes a day after the SNB eased rates in Switzerland in an attempt to weaken the Swiss franc. As a result, the US dollar has been strengthening, despite the weak economic picture here in the US.
Despite the deliberate weakening of safe-haven assets by Central banks around the globe, risk aversion is high to start the morning and surprisingly gold isn’t trading higher than yesterday’s all-time nominal highs. Oil is trading lower on the global economic slowdown, and the market has cast aside its fears (or hopes) of further easing from the Fed in the form of QE3.
So the rate policy decision in Japan produced monetary easing, but the rate decisions from both the ECB and BOE produced no change, as was expected. The debt crisis is starting to heat up again, as yields surged on Spain as they are holding a bond auction today. Fears are also starting to pick up in Italy and officials are becoming concerned that a lack of confidence in the banking system could start a snowballing effect that could produce a run on the banks. At this point they are calling it a “walk”, but that could pick up if enough people lose confidence.
US initial jobless claims came out this morning showing exactly 400K newly unemployed which has been the average but worse than expectations. Tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report will be extremely important in that it will show exactly how weak the US economy is and how close the Fed may be to QE3.
So the race to the bottom continues, as countries around the globe attempt to weaken their currencies to help encourage exports to improve their economies. But if everyone is trying to export, who the heck is buying?
Since I started writing this, gold has picked up steam and made a new all-time high of 1678, and comments from Jean-Claude Trichet have has sent the Euro higher as he attempts to calm fears over what the ECB is doing to stem the debt crisis.
These are crazy times, folks, so remember that in forex you don’t have to be the best-looking currency, just the least ugly!
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